If Kara-France can force Albazi to waste energy early – either by denying takedown attempts or quickly scrambling back to his feet – he could win the cardio battle here and ultimately prevail in the later rounds. Bontorin had an easy time tracking down Kara-France in the smaller octagon – and nearly finished the fight – he just didn’t have the cardio to maintain that pressure. And you can’t understate the limited space Kara-France has to move away from him in the UFC Apex facility the smaller octagon is a clear advantage for Albazi and his intended grappling game plan. I think that is exactly what Albazi intends to do. Aside from his fights with Rogerio Bontorin (who doesn’t have great cardio) and Askar Askarov (who struggled in a big cage), no fighter has tried to pressure and push a relentless grappling pace on Kara-France from the opening bell. This matchup may ultimately turn on which fighter has superior cardio. However, if Albazi threatens submissions from dominant positions or maintains control for most of three rounds, the scoring should be much less debatable. Some judges may still reward the grappling and control for Albazi in tight rounds – even if the general trend (and the proper assessment) is to prioritize damage. Unless Kara-France scores a knockout, his upside here is likely a close and competitive decision in which he gets taken down, scrambles back to his feet, and lands the more damaging shots in most rounds. He has also never been past the 15-minute mark in his MMA career, but he typically pushes a hectic pace, and it remains to be seen whether he can deploy a grappling-heavy gameplan in a five-round fight.īelow, I’ll provide my analysis and projections and utilize those factors to bet on the main event tonight for UFC Vegas 74.įrom the perspective of general MMA betting philosophy, in a pick’em fight in which the two opponents possess relatively similar finishing upside – but one fighter has the offensive grappling upside – you should almost always side with the grappler they have ways to win rounds more dominantly and potentially secure a 10-8 scorecard at some point during a fight. His only UFC losses have come against Moreno (twice) and Brandon Royval, and he has faced tougher competition than his opponent, Amir Albazi.Īlbazi enters the UFC Vegas 74 main event on a five-fight winning streak, including a 4-0 run under the UFC banner. That was his first scheduled five-round bout, but Kara-France has never been past the 15-minute mark in his career. Kara-France returns to the octagon after his loss for the interim flyweight title against Brandon Moreno at UFC 277 last July. The entire event, including the five-round Kai Kara-France vs. 3-ranked contender Kai Kara-France taking on No. On Saturday the UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility for UFC Vegas 74, which features an important main event for the flyweight rankings with No.
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